Advanced Outlook: Clemson-Florida State projections (2024)

If Week 3 of the college football season showed anything, it’s just how little we collectively know with small sample sizes (or with preseason projections).

With that as a backdrop, here comes the early showcase game of the ACC season, pitting two teams that have metrics pretty confused compared to their traditional counterparts.

After both holding preseason Top 10 rankings, No. 4/3 Florida State (3-0) is the lone team of the two left in the AP Top 25 heading into its conference opener and a slight favorite in Vegas for Saturday in Death Valley (noon/ABC), while Clemson is a perceived favorite by one trusted ESPN projection and the game is seen as a toss-up by another advanced metrics outlet.

Without further ado, let’s dive into the numbers:

Efficiency rankings: Offense: | Defense | Special teams

CU SP+ ranks ($) (12): 19 | 13 | 103

FSU SP+ ranks (13): 10 | 23 | 13

CU FEI ranks (16): 36 | 5 | | 114

FSU FEI ranks (13): 8 | 25 | 31

CU FPI ranks (17): 77 | 2 | 127

FSU FPI ranks (10): 12 | 22 | 13

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The glaring difference with the efficiency ratings comes on special teams, where the Tigers have had myriad issues – particularly at placekicker. After a 1-for-4 start from redshirt freshman Robert Gunn III (plus a couple of extra point misses), the Tigers are set to bring back a backup walk-on from the previous four seasons (Jonathan Weitz) after a Sunday call made to the former remote-study graduate student. For comparison’s sake, Florida State is solid at punter, but they’ve had their bumps in the road at kicker over the last two seasons and have yet to attempt a kick of over 40 yards this season (starter Ryan Fitzgerald was 12-for-20 in 2022 but 3-for-3 in 2023).

The glaring difference in traditional metrics versus advanced ones comes with the Florida State defense and the Clemson offense.

The Seminoles rank 101st in yards per game allowed (391.3 YPG) but hold a unanimous Top 25 unit across the three advanced metrics above. Part of that disparity is not knocking FSU for facing a top-flight offense with LSU to start the year, to whom they surrendered the most yards (459). The Bayou Bengals have an offense rated as high as fifth in the nation (ESPN FPI) and just ran up 41 points and 530 yards at Mississippi State.

The disparity isn’t as much for the Clemson offense, which did fall out of the Top 10 to 20th in total offense from Week 2 to Week 3 (489.3 YPG). SP+ has Clemson one spot higher than that (19), but ESPN’s FPI has it rated at 77th. That could factor red zone offense more, which is 117th currently.

Three FSU players to watch

1. QB Jordan Travis

If the name sounds familiar, it should – he’s on year six in Tallahassee and up for his third start against the Tigers. So far, he has four touchdowns to no interceptions and a rushing score against Clemson in two losses. Travis posted his second-best PFF running grade of the 2022 season against the Tigers, where he rushed for 64 yards on 14 carries and took one in the end zone. In his last time in Death Valley, Travis suffered his worst passing grade of the year (38.7) and second-worst overall mark (58.1).

His final FSU campaign hasn’t quite reached the heights of the previous two years grades-wise (81.6) after final marks above 85 in each (91.7 in 2022). His yards per pass, per PFF, is not far off last season at 8.8 YPA with eight touchdowns to one interception and a 63.1 completion rate.

Travis has connected on three big-time throws of over 20+ yards this season, grading 86 even there – and doing about as well in medium passes (10-19 yards, 84.7). Under pressure, he’s completed 57.9% of his passes and graded six points higher against the blitz (73.4), with 8.4 yards per pass and four touchdowns to one interception. For comparison, Klubnik has a better grade versus the blitz (78.5) but has connected on only 38.2% of his passes under pressure and graded 57.2 there with 3.7 yards per pass. Klubnik has two big-time throws of 20+ yards and grades out at 67.7 there (but 88.5 on medium throws).

Travis briefly sat out due to an apparent upper-body injury in the win over Boston College last week but returned in the second half. He makes the FSU offense go, and they need him healthy to get out of Clemson with a win.

2. WR Keon Coleman

Coleman (6-4 215) combines with 6-foot-7 target Johnny Wilson to be one of the more formidable receiver duos in the nation, but Coleman has gone quiet lately after a strong showing in a national showcase versus LSU.

Coleman was targeted 11 times and caught nine passes for 122 yards and three touchdowns in the season opener. Coleman received three targets in the topsy-turvy win at BC but didn’t log a catch. Wilson starred with four catches for 105 yards in that victory, and FSU will look to involve both against a Clemson secondary that’s rated in the Top 10 in limiting passing efficiency (third) and passing yards (ninth).

3. FSU DEs

Jared Verse was one of the breakout stars of college football last year after a transfer from Albany, but teams have evidently found ways to limit his impact. He averaged a pressure every 11.4 snaps last season with nine sacks and 25 hurries. Through three games, Verse has been shut out on sacks and averaged a pressure every 17 snaps. He still holds the best pass rush grade on the FSU D-line (72.8), but third-year player Patrick Payton, the 2022 ACC defensive rookie of the year, only has one fewer hurry (7). Clemson will look to keep them in check also, and its young QB comfortable enough in the pocket to make plays.

Misc. Clemson stat of the week

Clemson failed to hit five field goals combined in its last two losses (Duke and Tennessee), while only four FG attempts were missed scoring opportunities in its last 13 wins over the 2022-23 seasons. Outside of those two defeats, the last time Clemson missed multiple field goals in a game was against Florida State in 2021 at home, with three in a row gone awry in the 30-20 Clemson win.

Odds

Florida State -2.5; 55.5 over/under.

Metrics predictions

SP+ projection: Clemson 29-26 (56% Clemson projection)

ESPN FPI: 57.3% FSU projection

FEI: FSU 26.3-26.2 (50.1% FSU projection; normally projection scores are rounded off but that would be 26-26, so it’s a toss-up there.)

🏈WEEK 4 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS🏈
🍻: Link in Bio

SATURDAY MORNING SLATE

FLORIDA STATE @ CLEMSON pic.twitter.com/rb9YKLyu4p

— parker fleming (@statsowar) September 19, 2023

Analysis: We’ll start here: I don’t love the spread from the Clemson side of it and wouldn’t make a pick it if I didn’t do this feature for Clemson’s ACC and other prime non-conference games. To do a callback to the ‘13 Clemson-FSU game postgame fallout, I’d probably predict a Florida State win around six times out of 10 in this matchup and location straight-up currently – just based on the data and watching and re-watching each team’s games this season so far. But if I have to make a spread pick, it’s hard not to like a home underdog that’s been very good in Death Valley – and has both plenty of talent and a history of beating the particular opponent on the other sideline. So, take that for what it’s worth, or the advanced metric predictions above…or completely ignore this feature entirely – and you might just be right. Pick: Clemson +2.5. (2-1 on ATS picks, 2-1 on over/under; Game score pick in TigerNet’s weekly game prediction story)

(Some grades and advanced numbers are per Pro Football Focus)